This is a corrected version of this story.

Rochester school district officials predicted last year that the August graduation rate would increase from 51 percent in 2010 to an estimated 53 percent in 2011, and that was supposed to be a conservative estimate.
Instead, the 2011 grad rate dropped to 49.4 percent.
The estimate is based on district data presented this evening to the school board‘s committee on Excellence in Student Achievement. The State Department of Education has not released the official grad rates for 2011, which could end up being even lower.
The drop in the grad rate could be attributed to several factors, according to district officals. New York no longer offers a local high school diploma. Almost all students must meet the requirements for a Regents diploma to graduate, which meant passing four Regents exams for students who entered their freshman year in 2007.
A grade of 65 or better is required to pass the Regents exams.
The official state graduation rates should be released in February.